European Crisis
The Good, the Bad and the Extremely Ugly (aspects of the Cyprus deal)
, 25/03/2013
There are some good features of the Cyprus deal and, of course, some bad aspects. However, its repercussions for the Eurozone as a whole are exceptionally ugly and will, I submit, mark a turning point for Europe; a point at which Europe took a nasty turn toward a set of mutually disagreeable outcomes.
On Cyprus, the Eurozone and the Australian economy: A 30' minute interview by Doug Henwood
, 25/03/2013
Behind the News with Doug Henwood: March 21st 2013
On BBC Radio 4, talking Cyprus
, 23/03/2013
Here is the audio that goes with these thoughts on Cyprus:
While waiting for Cyprus' Godot….
, 23/03/2013
Here are some unedited thoughts I just shared with the BBC’s Radio 4 on Cyprus while we are all waiting for the new deal to shape up: Cyprus’ banking sector must shrink. As did Ireland’s, the hard way. What is essential, as every Irishman and woman will tell you, is that the politicians do not […]
Cyprus Parliament's gift to the Eurozone
, 20/03/2013
By voting down the bailout proposal that would violate the deposit insurance agreement between a member-state of the Eurozone and its citizens (see my earlier post for an analysis), Cyprus parliamentarians offered the Eurozone a reprieve from the stupidest and most potentially destructive Eurogroup decision since this Crisis began three years ago. Europe now has, thanks to […]
Cyprus’ Stability Levy: Another sad euphemism (updated on 18th March)
, 17/03/2013
They called it a ‘stability levy’, when they meant a tax on Cypriot depositors (including the savings of poor widows and small children) so that they spare holders of Cypriot government bonds (including hedge funds who are now having a party in Mayfair and New York) as well as minimise potential long-term losses by the […]
Lest we forget: The neglected roots of Europe’s slide to authoritarianism
, 14/03/2013
Europe is being torn apart by a titanic clash between (a) the unstoppable popular rage against misanthropic austerity policies and (b) our elites’ immovable commitment to more austerity. Precisely how this clash will play out no one knows, except of course that the odds do not seem to be on the side of the good. […]
From Contagion to Incoherence: Toward a model of the unfolding Eurozone Crisis
, 05/03/2013
This post offers readers a fully-fledged analytical model of the unfolding Eurozone Crisis. It begins with a macro-economic analysis of the Crisis’ causes and then, importantly, models the feedback between Europe’s institutional and policy responses and the contagion process that began with Greece. For the fully-fledged (wonkish) version of the paper, click here. What follows below […]
At the OECD, Paris, this Friday 1st March, speaking to: "The Euro Crisis, Asia's Woes and America's Dilemma in a Global Context"
, 26/02/2013
This coming Friday, 1st March, I shall be addressing the OECD on the need to re-think the Euro Crisis, Asia’s angst and America’s conundrum. My argument will be that markets cannot be trusted to correct the global imbalances underpinning our collective woes. Political action is needed at a global scale. Correction: In the original post, […]
On spontaneous order, Valve, the future of corporations, Hume, Smith, Marx and Hayek: A one hour chat with Russ Roberts on ECONTALK
, 25/02/2013
There is nothing more heartwarming than mutually beneficial exchanges with intellectually curious people with whom one disagrees strongly on some matters while sharing strong views and common concerns on others. Russell Roberts is Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and a Chicago PhD holder. Besides his academic credentials, he is the host of ECONTALK, a […]
Europe needs a hegemonic Germany
, 22/02/2013
For six decades Germany was being pampered by a hegemonic America that oversaw the write-off of its wartime debts, the reversal of Allied designs to de-industrialise it and, above all else, the constant generation of the global demand which allowed German manufacturers to concentrate on efficiently producing quality, desirable wares.
Economic illiteracy in the service of economic misanthropy: An Econ 101 reminder of the meaning of the multiplier for austerians
, 19/02/2013
Here is a quote from a recent pro-austerity article in an Establishment Greek newspaper: “Let us not forget that [Greece’s] primary surplus in 2009 was 10% and the result was a recession of 2.8%. Thus the fiscal multiplier was -3.5, not 0.5, not 0.75, not 1.7!” The author’s purpose, of course, was to argue that the […]
On the Global Minotaur’s Recycling Loop: An elementary comparison of US-German and Intra-Eurozone trade & capital flows
, 17/02/2013
This post was occasioned by a reader’s (Alejandro Calve Seferian) query: Why do I presume that an accelerating US trade deficit required an offsetting tsunami of net capital flows, from the Rest of the World to the US, in order to ‘close the loop’ and, thus, provide long term aggregate demand to the Rest of […]
Are Ireland and Portugal out of the woods? An updated version
, 12/02/2013
This post is an updated version of the previous one, addressing some of the points raised by Wolfgang Munchau in this article published since in the Financial Times. Ireland and Portugal have, recently, tested the water of the money markets with some success. Portugal has issued 5-year bonds and Ireland is in the process of […]
Are Ireland and Portugal out of the woods?
, 10/02/2013
Ireland and Portugal have, recently, tested the water of the money markets with some success. Portugal has issued 5-year bonds and Ireland is in the process of converting its unbearable promissory notes into long-term bonds, to be sold to the private sector. So, on face value, two of the so-called ‘program’ Eurozone countries, wards of […]
European Banking Union: Behind the rhetoric
, 09/02/2013
On 8th February 2013, the Texas International Law Journal organised a conference on the theme of The Nation State and its Banks. Click here for the full program. The organisers were kind enough to invite me to give the lunchtime talk, which I chose to be European Banking Union: Behind the rhetoric. You can here an […]
Some of us always said it: Grexit was an incredible threat
, 27/01/2013
So, Grexit is off the table, at least for now. Well, it was really never on the table, as some of us have been shouting from the rooftops for years now. Back in May 2011, I was writing here that the whole idea of expelling Greece from the Eurozone was based on “an incredible treat”; on […]
How can Europe overcome the crisis – by Robert Misik
, 23/01/2013
“The euro zone slips into the Merkel-recession”, writes Robert Misik in the German Trades Union Federation’s magazine AGAINST APERTURE. But, he adds, there are realistic alternatives. Some economists have developed ambitious plans. The DGB a Marshall Plan for Europe is one such. Click here to go to Misic’s webpage or read on…
Greek unemployment: Interviewed by John Doyle, ABC Radio National
, 15/01/2013
Unemployment in Greece is now at a staggering 27%, but behind all the statistics and the ongoing international drama there lies a major human tragedy and an ongoing European Crisis that is ravaging the continent like an unstoppable bushfire. Click: RN Breakfast Tue 15th Jan 2013 – Greek unemployment
The Eurozone and Greece: Is the Crisis over?
, 15/01/2013
A journalist from Chile’s El Mercurio just put two questions to me: (1) Is the Eurozone safe? and (2) Is Greece stabilising? Here are my answers:
Taking stock of 2012: Interviewed by Doug Henwood on KFPA
, 09/01/2013
Just before New Year’s Eve, I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Doug Henwood once again. As the New Year was approaching fast, our talk, naturally, summed up developments on the Euro Crisis during 2012 and the prospects for 2013. To listen click: Behind the News with Doug Henwood for December 27th 2012 Podcast Contents […]
Toward an evolutionary model of the Eurozone Crisis: Ayers Scholar address, ASSA, San Diego
, 08/01/2013
We are all familiar with the so-called domino effect, or contagion, that began in Greece and has taken its toll throughout the Eurozone. Interestingly, no formal economic model has ever attempted to capture the essence of this negative dynamic. When the Association for Evolutionary Economics (AFEE) chose to honour me with the ‘Ayres Scholar for 2013’ accolade, […]
In lieu of a Happy New Year, courtesy of Camus
, 31/12/2012
“In the depths of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay an invincible summer.”—Albert Camus Photo by Danae Stratou
Will the real economy rebound, following Wall Street's resuscitation? And what of Europe? – Interviewed by El Confidencial
, 20/12/2012
Another Spanish newspaper, El Confidencial, were kind enough to interview me on the global and european crisis, on the occasion of the Global Minotaur‘s Spanish translation-edition. Here is the interview, in English (the actual article will appear in Spanish, of course). Read on…