Why we recommend a NO in the referendum – in 6 short bullet points

  1. Negotiations have stalled because Greece’s creditors (a) refused to reduce our un-payable public debt and (b) insisted that it should be repaid ‘parametrically’ by the weakest members of our society, their children and their grandchildren
  2. The IMF, the United States’ government, many other governments around the globe, and most independent economists believe — along with us — that the debt must be restructured.
  3. The Eurogroup had previously (November 2012) conceded that the debt ought to be restructured but is refusing to commit to a debt restructure
  4. Since the announcement of the referendum, official Europe has sent signals that they are ready to discuss debt restructuring. These signals show that official Europe too would vote NO on its own ‘final’ offer.
  5. Greece will stay in the euro.  Deposits in Greece’s banks are safe.  Creditors have chosen the strategy of blackmail based on bank closures. The current impasse is due to this choice by the creditors and not by the Greek government discontinuing the negotiations or any Greek thoughts of Grexit and devaluation. Greece’s place in the Eurozone and in the European Union is non-negotiable.
  6. The future demands a proud Greece within the Eurozone and at the heart of Europe. This future demands that Greeks say a big NO on Sunday, that we stay in the Euro Area, and that, with the power vested upon us by that NO, we renegotiate Greece’s public debt as well as the distribution of burdens between the haves and the have nots.

65 thoughts on “Why we recommend a NO in the referendum – in 6 short bullet points

  1. From Business Insider:

    VAROUFAKIS: If Greece votes ‘yes,’ I’ll quit

    If the above was indeed said … with all due respect, Yani, that is not a cool thing to say.

    • But it’s only logical. Greeks should re-elect Samaras or Venizelos if they agree to obey the Troika. What I would not understand would be that they ask Syriza to behave like them.

    • Only a substantial difference between the Yes and No votes would raise the topic of government change.

      If the delta between the yes and No vote is more than 10+% then the question of holding new elections becomes legitimate. Otherwise it could be interpreted as a Brussels coup d’état against democracy.

    • Are you one of those wealthy people who spend more than 60 euros per day? With my earnings (and I am not Greek) at that rhythm, I could only live 10 days each month!

      This is nothing compared to what the EU is inflicting on its own citizens for the sake of the banksters bottomless pit of greed.

      Also the measure was decreed by Mario Draghi. Please write to your EU comissary and demand his immediate cessation.

    • Would there have been a run on the banks, Maju, had Greece actually been making sensible proposals to the rest of the Eurozone and demonstrating a competent government?

    • I think Greece has made more than just “sensible” proposals. In my opinion they have gone very far in accepting Troika ever increasing demands once and again. The Troika has only be using delaying tactics, increasing their demands beyond all logic and reforming the Greek proposals against the common citizen and in favor of the oligarchs. They should have slammed the door much earlier, Randy. I understand that they needed some deal to get through to June but I believe they should not have paid a cent more afterwards, as it was obvious that the Troika was not serious. They should have also demanded that Berlin goes serious on the issue of WWII debt and compensations before sitting to talk with them (it’s so one-sided ridiculously abusive what Merkel does).

      I guess that they are not radical enough for my liking. However that should be what makes them “sensible” to the ones like you. But nope.

      Bank runs only happen if you let them happen: these capital controls or something similar should have been implemented much earlier. Actually that would have been a negotiating card on Syriza’s side, I believe. It is a statement of determination: “we are willing to go anywhere before becoming the tool of the global banksters”. They should also appoint a public supervisor, with access to all decision-making meetings, accounts and archives, to every single large company, before they turn the country to pulp with their selfish and often cheater behavior.

    • “They should have also demanded that Berlin goes serious on the issue of WWII debt”

      Why? It’s a dishonest red herring, and classless besides, to use the sufferings of seventy years ago to get a free out for one’s contemporary ills. If this is political theatre, then it is political theatre intended to alienate sympathy.

      “It is a statement of determination: “we are willing to go anywhere before becoming the tool of the global banksters”.”

      This is a threat that works only for so long as one’s negotiating partners believe they themselves could be hurt, or at least as long as they believe they would suffer unacceptable levels of damage. If this is not the case, well.

    • Germany owes more money to Greece than Greece does to the whole world. That is not “dishonest” nor any “red herring”, except on the side of hypocritical Germany.

      Worse: Greece has been all this time incredibly tolerant and helpful of Germany’s position on the matter, however Germany has not doubted to greedily and selfishly jump at the jugular of Greece. One of the first outraging comments of a German minister when the crisis exploded five years ago was “we want Corfu”. What?! They have let that slip but in essence that’s the German attitude: smash little Greece, expropriate their wealth, drain them forever like Haiti!

      The German stand is unacceptable and in fact the problem of Europe is Germany. I would think that the EU would be much better off without Germany, really. Germany of course would be a lot worse off but I don’t think they deserve any comprehension nor support at this point, really. They have behaved like enemies of the common European citizen, they have become collectively hated by their own wrongdoings.

      True that the IMF and therefore other bankster “national” spaces (Anglosaxon, French, etc.) are also abusing but Germany only does their work. They won’t sign anything unless the IMF does? Who cares about the IMF, Angela?

      “This is a threat that works only for so long as one’s negotiating partners believe they themselves could be hurt”…

      Not at all. There is a point when you must draw red lines and, if “negotiating partners” don’t agree with them, it does not matter because one must do what one must do. It’s not any “bluff”: it’s just recovering their own power. The “bluff” is, if anywhere, in pretending to negotiate when negotiations are not such but a cul-de-sac with no possible solution (other than total surrender, which is no solution anyhow but just extend and pretend once again). I personally believe that the Greek Government should stop doing that: negotiating when there is no negotiation. It makes them look weak and inconsistent.

    • “Germany owes more money to Greece than Greece does to the whole world.”

      Says who? This is an argument that few people, or governments, can accept. There might be a case for direct German compensation of victims of Second World War atrocities, perhaps even for the forced loan. There is little to no case for full reparations.

      In any case, calling forth the victims of the Second World War as justification for being compensated fully for one’s own bad judgement is profoundly classless. It’s a sign, I think, that a Poland that suffered far more from Nazi Germany than Greece has found this Greek proposal ridiculous.

      “It makes them look weak and inconsistent.”

      They are weak and inconsistent.

    • Is it “classless”? I take that as a compliment. Thank you.

      Nobody is questioning whatever right to reparations Poland may have. I am not privy to the details however, so I will abstain to comment.

      The question of WWII unpaid debt and reparations is not just a matter of getting them paid but of underlining the extreme hypocrisy and double standards being applied in German-Greek unequal relations. More so when Germany is behaving almost exactly as in WWII: trying to make Europe to become Germany’s colonial space, lebensraum they called it back in the day. Today they use financial coercion instead of tanks but the general behavior is the same.

    • I suspect that you don’t actually know what “colonial” means. I suspect you don’t know, or choose not to know, many things.

      Always beware the blind nationalist, convinced in the unique historical rectitude of his (or her) country.

    • Of course I know what colonial and neo-colonial means. Do you? The paradigm of (neo-)colonialism applying here very much is Haiti, which was imposed a huge arbitrary debt burden (to pay for the freedom of slaves, go figure!) by France after independence, debt burden (now owned by the USA) that has never been paid or defaulted, resulting in endless colonialist military occupations, including the ongoing one.

      Greece is being forced to become the Haiti of Europe. And that’s unacceptable. They’d better be the Cuba or at least the Venezuela of Europe. That’s the true dilemma of Greece and not just of that country: Spain, Portugal, Ireland and probably soon many others are in similar situation. There is a point when you have to just stop paying because your people is more important than whatever formal debt obligations.

    • “So you are now appropriating the spectres of racism and slavery”.

      I don’t see how. What I see is that Haiti has been worse than abused since it achieved its national independence and emancipation and largely has been trampled by debt mechanisms. Exactly the same is what it seems they want to impose on Greece now. And exactly the same we must stand with the oppressed peoples for freedom and dignity.

      ““Classless” barely covers it”.

      I insist: classlessness is a compliment. I stand for a classless society and despise people (like you?) who stand for a class society in which a handful hold all power and wealth and brutally exploit, often murder, the rest.

      The problem is not being classless, the problem is being classist.

    • Greece is not Haiti. If Greece had a history of being a slave plantation colony of one western European power or another, the analogy might have worked. As it stands, it’s a ridiculous act of political blackface. But then, one would expect as little from someone who uses the Nazis as everything from an excuse for present misbehaviour to a lucrative source of income.

    • Randy, you’re arbitrarily “idealizing” some aspects of classical colonialism in the tropics in order to manipulate the issue.

      What matters is how a nation is being forced to destroy its economy, sell all its assets to foreign and local leeches, be put in a situation in which it cannot develop anymore and is still slave, slave by debt, of foreign powers. That is colonialism.

      I’ve seen it in Spain: I’ve seen how the EU has destroyed the national industry and replaced it by a handful of foreign subsidiaries or in most cases just nothing at all: imports and nothing else. And that was before the debt trap was laid. Spain had a flourishing furniture industry, now it’s all just Ikea, had metallurgies that are no more, shipyards that were said could not compete with Polish ones and were destroyed, a national car-maker that was swallowed by Volkswagen, all in the name of progress. What is left now? Holiday resorts and olive oil… and an impossible to pay debt. And that is what a colony is.

      The tobacco I roll is German (German tobacco? Who would have imagined!), the vitamin supplements I eat are German, the car I don’t have would be most likely German, the job I don’t find is said to be waiting for me in Germany (in slavery conditions), even the currency I carry in my wallet is said to be German, sort of. And then of course I pay huge taxes to be sent to Germany in form of tribute and the constitution has been amended, not to protect my rights or anything of the like (ha!) but to make sure that Germany gets its tribute ALWAYS.

      That is colonialism. It has no other name unless you’re thinking in “slavery” maybe.

    • No, I am insisting that words mean something akin to their actual meaning. If I follow one person’s usage and say that the sale by Canadian coffee chain Tim Horton’s of steeped tea is rape, I say nothing useful about either sexual assault or the sale of steeped tea. (True story.)

      If I talk about slavery and colonialism, then I had better be talking about scenarios that are actually similar to both. The Nazi occupation of Greece would be a good example of this. Greece being too poor and disorganized to pay its debts, and is creditors insisting on conditionality, is not it. To do otherwise would be to show a profound misreading of the current situation in Greece and to insult the victims of actual slavery and colonialism.

      Tsipras is many things. One thing that he certainly not is Tousaint L’Ouverture.

    • Your metaphor is most obscure: what is “steeped tea”?

      Anyways, the issue that Yanis and others have often underlined is that the current situation is not substantially different from the III Reich, and not just relative to Greece, which was until Syriza’s victory de facto occupied by an army of bureaucrats that dared even to interfere with daily healthcare management. One of the most cheered measures of the Tsipras government has been no doubt to send back home that army of occupation bureaucrats, true political commissaries of Merkel, Lagarde and Draghi.

      But it is in general the structure of the Eurozone which works as “post-modern IV Reich”: totally structured to serve the interests of Germany (its big capital, to be precise) and its handful of small Nordic satellites (Sweden, Netherlands, Austria, Finland and the tax heaven known as Luxemburg) at the expense of the bulk of the Eurozone (Latin Europe and some other peripheral states like Greece and Ireland), whose economy has been torn to pieces just like Hitler planned to do with the Russian economy and to some extent also did with the rest of Europe, putting all to the service of the interests of “Germany” (i.e. the big German oligarchs and corporations).

      Let’s see some examples of colonialist double standards: Germany keeps its savings banks public but forces (via Brussels) other states to privatize them (partly in favor of German capital, no doubt), depriving these nations of a safety net against banking problems and of a key public asset in the area of finances. Or housing welfare, which acts as a subsidy to industry by helping to keep salaries low: Germany is entitled to it but don’t dare to “spend our German euro-marks” in housing for the colonized peoples of the South.

      And this is all structured around a huge machinery of propaganda that systematically lies, claiming that Greeks work less than Germans (when the opposite is true in fact: Greeks have the longest working days of the Eurozone, Germans work quite less than the Eurozone’s average), emphasizing the corruption that does exist in Greece but dismissing the corruption that also exists in Germany and across the Eurosclerosis and appointing the culprit number one of the Greek debt scam, Mario Draghi, to rule the ECB.

      If Greece now has as many tanks (made in Germany, mind you) as France, Italy and Germany together, it is no doubt fault of the former Greek rulers, who should be put in jail for that (it’s high treason), but it is also fault of Germany and the involved bankster mafia, and those politicians and CEOs involved should also be put in jail for high treason against Europe and democracy.

      Not even Syriza is demanding this. But I do because the only thing that prevents further exploitation of the social trust is to very severely punish the fraudsters and for that they must be treated for what they are: traitors to their nations, traitors to Europe and traitors to Democracy and Human Rights.

      However what we see in Europe today is the increase in punishment against surely innocent commoners by both diverting the burden of odious, illegitimate and often illegal debt on our shoulders, and by forging new repressive laws like the Spanish Muzzle Law, which in effect makes protest nearly impossible.

      Meanwhile the real culprits: Draghi, Schauble, Samaras, Rato, etc. get away without any sort of effective punishment, and often with rewards. Our lack of reaction to all this debt scam is feeding the mafia.

      It works as a colonialist “post-modern IV Reich” but mostly the EU now sadly works as the private hunting grounds of a consolidated bankster mafia. Meanwhile “our” governments keep discussing in almost total secrecy (thanks Wikileaks!) about new “trade” treaties that would totally destroy the last rights of European (and other) citizens, and even the sovereignty of states, in favor of the “rights” of big corporations. Corporations that only work for their own short-sighted interests and will no doubt destroy our civilization if we allow them to.

      It’s time to not just resist but to overthrow the dictatorship of the banks. If we do not, we have huge problems ahead in almost no time.

    • BTW, Randy restocking supermarket shelves is good for the economy. If some emotional Greeks would actually want to help supermarkets to restock faster then that’s a private matter of those private citizens who have decided to play supermarket in their own private surroundings.

    • That’s a total lie. The supermarkets are provisioned with supplies/replacements for at least 6 months and the country’s fuel reserves could last for another 5.

      Where did you hear that Greek supermarkets can not restock from their warehouses overnight? Typically warehouses are in the suburbs and supermarket trucks replace after midnight and the early morning hours for traffic reasons.

    • The media. If there are not empty shelves, I await the proof.

      I would note that modern international supply chains are inherently fragile. Interruptions in payments can have far-reaching effects, especially if we’re talking about imports.

    • The supermarkets in the centre of Athens are fuIIy stocked. The street markets ditto. “Empty supermarkets” is simpIy part of the ND/Potami/PASOK propaganda and fear porn bIaring from the oligarch owned TV stations night and day. Try watching ERT instead.

    • I read and/or watch the media daily, several sources, including at least one of the officialist media, which I have to read with my nostrils closed but is necessary to know what the ogres in charge are saying, even if it is 99% lies. And I have yet to read anything about shops lacking provisions, on the opposite: a problem happening at least on the first days was that they were not getting many customers. So if anything, rather than harming supply, these ECB-imposed capital controls are harming demand.

      So if anything what you say means that you are not getting proper information and you should diversify your media sources and maybe even get rid of some of the most manipulative ones, which are obviously not informing but misinforming you.

    • This is absoIuteIy correct. SuppIy is fine. But people are conserving their Iimited cash & spend onIy on necessities. UnderstandabIe when the ECB has cIosed down the Greek banking system and TARGET 2.

      6O euros a day is not just a matter of groceries but firstIy transport to work, and biII payments, medicine, emergencies. Many peopIe have to traveI to their viIIages and islands to vote, which is not cheap. A one way ticket to MytiIene or Chios – next to Turkey – is 4O euros deck cIass.😯 euros return.

    • Which media? All private media channels in Greece are bankrupt (have been for a very long time) and have resorted to ambulance chasing for ratings.

      We have documented instances that sometimes the local media channels fabricate their own stories. They pick a location, ask their own people to show up there and the invent a story. There is no investigative reporting on Greek media. Alarm bells sound over telephone lines and then propagandists do their dirty job of misinformation and innuendo.

    • Guardian caters to an uber emotional crowd as well. I would give Guardians stories a day and then go and find out further. BTW, I am a private investigator nor am i in the business of providing you with reports. You job is every time I tell you something running against your own bias to then spend sometime researching it yourself. You can place filters at Google and have personalized news come to you at any topic you wish. Asking me to do research on your perceived food shortages in Athens is beyond ridiculous.

    • And Randy you need to learn to do the basics of research yourself. If you Google “food shortages Athens” then you get this:

      https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome-psyapi2&rlz=1CASMAH_enUS618US618&ion=1&espv=2&es_th=1&ie=UTF-8&q=food%20shortages%20athens&oq=food%20shortages%20athens&aqs=chrome..69i57.5923j0j8

      In it you see that the Guardian has been reporting chronic food shortages in Athens (for some reason) going back to August 2013. When you read these articles today they sound uber alarmist and nothing more.

  2. First, this referendum is after the June 30 deadline. Greece is in now arrearage to the IMF. What did the Greek government know these last few days that it did not know already a few weeks ago that it waited just before the June 30 deadline to call one?

    Second, the Greek government during the negotiations had caved in to austerity (running surpluses). The deficit limit of 3% is too low and the Greeks will be running surpluses? 😦

    Third, to paraphrase economist Warren Mosler and one of the leading voices on Modern Monetary Theory — the only way the Greek public debt, for all practical purposes, need to be “paid back” is thru refinance. If the ECB were to guarantee Geek debt, the Greek interest rate will go down to near zero. This decision is not be an economic one but a political one by the ECB.

    The ECB does not guarantee depositors savings (up to x amount)? Talk about a major structural flaw to the eurozone edifice!

    I’d Love to see Greece get the hell out of the eurozone and back to the drachma. But that unfortunately is easier said than done if the knowledge and expertise to do so is lacking.

    Disclosure: Me, I am fortunate — I live “across the pond” and not subject to the forced austerity measures that the Greeks are enduring and will continue to endure for God knows how long unless the thugs running the show in Europe come to their senses (Can thugs ever come to their senses? I mean, that is why we call them thugs, right?). My parents, not so fortunate. They sold a small piece of land in the countryside (xorafi) a few months ago; the proceeds deposited in a Greek bank….

    • A YES in the referendum means new elections. So those who would want to see this Greek government fall would vote Yes.

      A NO in the referendum means that this government is re-authorized and re-affirmed to complete its mission.

      If next Sunday people vote yes we will have a new period of delay due to new elections and there is a great possibility that Syriza would win it by more than 50%.

      Therefore Yanis strategy appears to be brilliant. A NO vote gets quickly the government back into the negotiating table and a YES vote still gets Syriza firmly in charge of the whole process but a bit later due the process’ time delay.

      Syriza wins in either scenario in the end.

  3. Dear Yianis,
    Καλώς ή κακώς (θα φανεί!) οι εταίροι μας θεωρούν εσκεμμένα ή αθέλητα(λέμε τώρα), πως το δημοψήφισμα έχει άλλη ερώτηση. Μιλούν διαρκώς για ερώτηση: “Μέσα ή έξω από το Ευρώ;”

    Κακώς, θα αποδειχτεί αν μείνετε στην παγίδευση, γιατί οι πιέσεις πάνε και θα πηγαίνουν όλες στο Κυριακάτικο “ΝΑΙ” και έτσι θα φύγει ο Τσίπρας και ο Yianis από την Κυβέρνηση.

    Καλώς, θα μπορούσε να καταλήξει αν – πέρα από τις προθεσμίες εισαγωγής νέου ερωτήματος στο 5/6ου δημοψήφισμα – γεννιόταν η δήλωση/δέσμευση, πως την επόμενη βδομάδα που θα γίνει ΝΕΟ δημοψήφισμα με ερώτημα: “Μέσα ή έξω από Ε.Ε. και Ευρώ;” η θέση της Κυβέρνησης θα είναι “ΕΝΤΟΣ”.

    Η κίνηση αυτή θα απελευθέρωνε όλη την καταπιεσμένη πίεση των απλών ανθρώπων, για τα ΝΑΙ στο “σφάξε με αγά μου” και το ποσοστό της Κυριακής θα ξεκινούσε από το 70% ΟΧΙ.

    Μία γραπτή(formal στα αρχαιοελληνικά) επικοινωνία μεταξύ ηγετών, όπου θα υπήρχε η παράκληση να σταματήσει η διαστρέβλωση του ερωτήματος και η δήλωση ετοιμότητας να παρασχεθούν εγγυήσεις, για την στράτευση προσώπων και πολιτικής παράταξης στην Ευρωπαϊκή ιδέα, θα μπορούσε να πυροδοτήσει αντιδράσεις για να πραγματοποιηθεί το δεύτερο Δημοψήφισμα.

    ΥΓ. Θα το εκτιμούσα, αν θα ήθελες, να μου έστελνες όσα από τα προ-έκδοσης ηλεκτρονικά αντίγραφα των βιβλίων σου μπορείς στο ologistis του gmail.com.

  4. Let’s make it clear because I see confusion in the comments below.

    A YES vote means that you are prepared to nullify the collective efforts of your own government during the last 5 months and furthermore deprive your elected government to seek better terms going forward. It also means that this vote is based on your irrational fear that some Brussels boogeymen might show you the exit sign from the eurozone event though such possibility is not real but a pure figment of your own defeatist imagination. Furthermore a YES vote renders your own government redundant and calls for its abolition since you are willing to transfer important sovereignty issues over to centers outside Greece. In such case paying for the salaries of 300 parliamentarians is completely unnecessary and the Parliament needs to be dissolved immediately on a permanent basis.

    On the other hand a NO vote is gesture of encouragement to your own brave government to continue to fight in protecting your rights as well as a thank you for job well done so far.

    Where is the logic for a Yes vote?

    • no bank bail-ins. That’s the logic.

      And I really don’t get how you think PSI and OSI figure into anything. The point is, the banks won’t be solvent. I know that Yanis is right about the debt and the deal’s unsustainability, but we don’t have a lender of last resort for the banks, and so they got us by the ….. They gave the good fight, but it’s time to pack up, admit defeat, and live to fight another day.

    • What bank bail-ins? There is not anything left in Greek bank accounts and there is a 100000 limit per account for a bail in.

      Greeks have been draining their accounts for 2 years now and the vast majority don’t have bank funds in excess of 100000 euros per account for a bail-in.

    • ” though such possibility is not real but a pure figment of your own defeatist imagination.”

      It is not. What happens if the ECB stops guaranteeing the Greek financial system? What will Greece do without banks?

      “Furthermore a YES vote renders your own government redundant and calls for its abolition since you are willing to transfer important sovereignty issues over to centers outside Greece.”

      This is what Greece did when it joined the Eurozone: It transferred important sovereignty issues, specifically over money, to centers outside Greece. No one who was paying attention could possibly have been unaware of this transfer.

    • Randy:

      Not so fast.

      1. The ECB already oversees the entire Greek banking system therefore any act of mismanagement (such stopping ELA support) would be a clear violation of the existing treaties and as such subject to severe consequences for the violator (in this case Schauble and the gang). As far as I know incompetence is not an accepted cause for mismanagement in these matters.

      2. No citizen in Greece has ever passed any sovereignty to any other mechanism outside Greece because such would be unconstitutional and therefore illegal.

      Do you care to rephrase your arguments as corrected? I hope you are not that unsophisticated to suggest that a bunch of Brussels gangsters could invoke the old “he who has the gold makes the rules” because such delusions could land someone very quickly in jail.

    • It apparently is not a violation of treaties to continue supporting the financial system of a Eurozone country that, among other things, is not behaving in good faith. Can you point to the specific treaty stipulations?

      Your second point is incomprehensible. One wonders what Greeks thought their country was doing as it joined one organization dedicated to supranational integration and transfers of sovereignty to a European level after another. The European Union, the Eurozone, and their predecessor organizations have been openly about these kinds of transfers since their very beginning.

      Greeks might well wish that their nation-state did not cede elements of its sovereignty to European institutions. In the specific case of the Euro, Greece might have been well-advised not to cede its monetary sovereignty. That said, this is something that a democratic Greek government did do, with the explicit support of the Greek population.

      The contention that there was no transfer of sovereignty is as risible as that of British Euroskeptics that the EEC of the 1970s was nothing more than a free trade organization. Of course it was not, and no one actually familiar with its operations would have claimed that.

    • Randy we are not going to hold a class here about how the ECB works. Google it and find out. Draghi now has 100% responsibility for the Greek banking system and Stournaras is the local ECB representative since Bank of Greece is the local ECB chapter.

  5. The Greek debt is not unsustainable because its servicing is very cheap, a mere 3% of the GDP. (15 years ago it was more than 6%.)

    “Yes, but the debt is un-payable!” Well, states don’t have to repay their debts; it suffices to roll them over perpetually. As long as the economy grows faster that the interest rate, everything is under control.

    The current government crave for a debt restructuring because they hope to raise cheap money from the markets to finance their rotten clientelist state.

    • This is not how markets and investors see it. What you call as sustainable will explode to unsustainable levels in 2020 when these artificial rates expire and loans need to be rolled over at market rates.

      Therefore if you are an investor looking at Greece for possible investments you don’t want to touch Greece until and when you know the interest rate replacement for the loans maturing in 2020 (meaning that Greece would be at earliest ready for investment consideration in 2021). Only then you might decide that the Greek debt is sustainable and therefore whether an investment in Greece makes any sense.

      Providing Greece with artificial low rates soon to expire is a gimmick which only works for the unsophisticated. And since markets are far more sophisticated that some Schauble inspired nonsense of “debt sustainability a la Bavaria” (whereby oodles of beer are required to digest such uber financial naivete), the end result of such imperfect trickery is to put Greece in the freezer for years. In other words the very thing Yanis is trying to avoid at any cost.

    • Thankyou Dean for your commonsense response. The idea that Greece will enjoy these rates forever is delusional. Thus the debt is unsustainable unless, of course, like the Troika, you are making decisions based on 5 month time frames.

    • How could you possibly disagree with Yanis?

      A YES vote means Troika wins.
      A NO vote means the negotiation towards better terms continues.

      Why do you want accept less than optimum terms by voting YES?

  6. Yanis,

    What every Greek citizen would like to know is how point 5 applies. In what way are deposits safe? Is there some kind of ECB deposit insurance? No. There’s only a Bank of Greece deposit insurance. If there’s no deal, and ECB pulls ELA, won’t banks have to be bailed in? Isn’t the situation such, that depositors would loose LESS by going to the drachma and letting the government recapitalize the banks, than by staying in the Euro?

    You should answer all of the above clearly, and not only in this blog, but also by an announcement to the Greek people.

    • There is a €5 billion deposit insurance fund against some €120 billion of bank deposits. If you are still not fully relieved, just take Yanis’ word for it.

    • What is left in Greek banks as deposits is well below the 100000 euro limit per account which is considered a minimum towards considering a further PSI. The deposits left in Greek bank accounts are not worth considering for a 2nd PSI. Only the OSI remains as a tool of any significance.

    • Euro deposits in Greek banks are liabilities of the Eurosystem to individual Greek citizens. Whatever happens on Monday that doesn’t change. What Euros you have, you will still have. Nobody wants to redominate them, and there’s no legal basis to do so.

      Now, other things may happen. Over time Euros may be precious and hard to come by in Greece and used mostly for international business. Greece might possibly issue a domestic currency in which you can pay rent, taxes, and groceries. I’m sure no self respecting finance minister would speculate about such possibilities. The main thing is, wether you vote yes or no you get to keep your Euros.

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