Why is the 2009 Greek government deficit probed by the courts, again?

29 Jan

Greek judges are, again, moving against Mr Georgiou, the Head of ELSTAT (the revamped Greek national statistics bureau). Why is this happening? And what does it signify?

It was the end of 2011 when the Head of the revamped Greek national statistics bureau was summoned to answer allegations of having inflated the 2009 budget deficit, at the behest of the Papandreou-Papakonstadinou government, allegedly in order to justify a further tightening of the austerity measures that went hand in hand with Greece’s ‘Bailout’ Mk1 and the Memorandum of Understanding with the troika that accompanied it.

Back then I recall being interviewed on the matter by BBC Radio 4’s More or Less program. Was the deficit inflated? And if so, was it done on purpose?

My answer was that, in truth, I am not sure. My hunch is that, after ‘Greek statistics’ had become the world’s laughing stock, it was natural, and indeed, prudent, to err on the side of caution and pessimism. That the new revamped authority, ELSTAT, had good cause to fear one thing above all else: that it would be painted with the same brush as its predecessor; that its estimates of the Greek budget deficit would, once again, prove in the months that follow an ‘under-estimate’.

 In this sense, I sympathised with Mr Georgiou and I too, if I had the ill fortune on being in his shoes, would be more worried about under-estimating the size of the budget deficit than about over-estimating it. The reason is simple: When the whole world assumes that Greek statistics is always going to under-estimate the budget deficit, changing this reputation, and impressing the world that things have changed, meant one thing: getting it right or, since statistics can never be precisely right, issuing predictions that err on the side of over-estimation. Thus, if the actual budget deficit comes in at a lower level than predicted, ELSTAT’s reputation for ‘bending the rules’ would improve, rather than remain in the pits.

Some say that ELSTAT issued these over-estimates of the 2009 budget deficit in cahoots with Mr Papakonstadinou, the then finance minister, in order to arm him with arguments in favour of not negotiating a better deal with the troika. While I hold Mr Papakonstadinou in considerable contempt, and would not put anything past his penchant for signing up to the worst loan agreement in the history of humanity, such an allegation must be proved beyond reasonable doubt. Put bluntly, I have seen no evidence that does this. Until and unless I do, I am prepared to accept the simpler explanation above; that is, that ELSTAT was reasonably erring on the side of over-estimation.

But then a more pertinent question presents itself: Since the end of 2011, the matter had blown over. Why is it now back on the agenda? Why is Mr Georgiou being chased up by the Greek judicial system? That this issue in now back is due to the new government’s desperate attempt to present itself as somehow different to the previous Papandreou regime. And for those who think that, due to the official separation of judicial from executive power, the judges’ decision to go after Mr Georgiou must have nothing to do with the government, I say: Think again! Tragically, many of our judges, though of course not by any means all, are very close to the government of the time. It is undoubtedly the case that the case against Mr Georgiou is being pursued by a group of judges uncomfortably close to today’s conservative-led government.

So, the question becomes: Why does the new three-party government want to persecute Mr Georgiou again? The answer can be gleaned by taking stock of two contradictory facts: On the one hand, the new government is scrupulously implementing the Papandreou-Papakonstantinou government’s agenda (even though Mr Samaras, our PM, had spent two years lambasting Papandreou while in opposition). On the other hand, the new government wants to present itself as a different kind of government and to impress upon the public this ‘difference’ by hounding selected members of the Papandreou regime whose policies it is copying. However, there are limits in how much of that hounding they can do since one of the three parties on which the government depends is the socialist PASOK party that was once led by Papandreou. this context, Mr Samaras and his New Democracy strategists are targeting soft targets. Georgiou is one such. Thus my understanding is that his prosecution has been revived as part of a general strategy (involving other soft targets too) to pacify the government’s supporters’ anger (with the unfolding austerity-driven Depression) while staying the course with the same austerian policies that the Papandreou government first implemented three years ago, which are responsible for the socio-economic implosion causing the asaid nger amongst the government supporters.

If it all sounds quite Byzantine it is because it is… Byzantine!

50 Responses to “Why is the 2009 Greek government deficit probed by the courts, again?”

  1. SOZ February 9, 2013 at 21:37 #

    Reblogged this on Greek Left Review.

  2. kotzabasis February 1, 2013 at 14:05 #

    Guest (xenos)
    Do you dye your hair? Do you have an inferiority complex as well?

    • Guest (xenos) February 1, 2013 at 19:14 #

      I am beginning to think that others who call for drugs tests rather than intelligence tests may well be right. Since you ask:
      (1) No, I do not dye my hair nor would I think of doing so. Perhaps it has not greyed yet because I do my best to avoid dealing with idiots and unnecessary stress.
      (2) As far as “complexes” are concerned, we are not competent to judge ourselves, so you should ask this question to others, not to myself.

      By the way, I really have no idea what is wrong with you. If you care about Greece so much, then I suggest you try living here. It is clear that you have no idea about what is happening to the society and economy, but continue to write drivel here.

  3. kotzabasis February 1, 2013 at 07:37 #

    Guest (xenos)

    You have an admirable high IQ that consumes itself in displaying your WEAK and CHOLERIC nature.

    • Guest (xenos) February 1, 2013 at 10:29 #

      It is one of the sad things about dumb people that they think they are really clever — sad, unless they get access to power. Then they are a calamity — like Giorgos Papandreou. We should be grateful for idiots like you who merely write vituperous comments on the web about their superiors.

    • Richard February 1, 2013 at 11:29 #

      Guest – You believe Papandreou did not achieve what he set out to do? If so, I believe you are wrong, he is a political genius. The wrong type of politics for Greece? Sure.

    • Guest (xenos) February 1, 2013 at 19:08 #

      @Richard: what do you think Papandreou set out to do? Since nothing at all has been achieved for Greece, and Papandreou is now one of the most hated men in Greece with his political career destroyed, this is not a matter of which policy choices were made. It is reflection of pure incompetence, melded with naked self-interest and a high degree of American interference. (None of these have been lost with Samaras, of course.)

      One of the things that I used to hear several years ago from reliable foreign diplomatic sources is that Papandreou wanted to use Greece as a stepping stone to be appointed Secretary General of the UN. (God forbid!) If that should happen in the future, then perhaps I will concede your point.

    • lastgreek February 3, 2013 at 01:37 #

      The American (George) has left the scene of the crime (Greece). He now has a teaching position at — of all places — Harvard! From what I hear, he’s teaching Failed Economics 101. Ok, it’s not the SG of the U.N. position, but he still, at least, gets to munch the establishment’s proverbial cucumber.

    • Guest (xenos) February 3, 2013 at 14:24 #

      @lastgreek: as far as I can recall, he is appointed as an adjunct lecturer (the lowest rank) and has one course called something like “The Future of Europe”. It was so heavily oversubscribed by students, that they had to hold a lottery to decide who would be allowed to attend, and also make an unique ruling that no classes could be missed.

      What I don’t understand is why so many students wanted to study this course. Several possible reasons come to mind, e.g.
      (1) They think that Pap is such a moron that the course will entail no work and everyone will pass
      (2) They think that Pap is so ridiculous that the course will be entertaining and not too difficult
      (3) They want to see just how stupid Greek politicians are, up close.
      (4) They think it’ll look cool on their CV to have taken a course by Pap.

      As you can see, my analysis of the situation does not bear comparison with his being appointed SG of the UN! Rather, he is an eccentric misfit on the margins of the Ivy League — living off his experience in politics (miserable as that turned out to be) and with nothing else to offer.

  4. EUdSSR January 31, 2013 at 21:42 #

    Spain is Greece!

    The Secret Kickbacks In Spain Fall Mainly Into The Pockets Of The Ruling Party:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-31/secret-kickbacks-spain-fall-mainly-pockets-ruling-party

    • Richard February 1, 2013 at 10:14 #

      EUdssr – If someone said to you all politicians get “help” from private companies would you be surprised?

    • EUdSSR February 2, 2013 at 09:36 #

      In vertain countries, nothing surprises me anymore. I Ever since private credit stopped flowing south and ended the illusion that the south is not a developing region based on tourism and agriculture, the true success of the EU becomes apparant.

  5. kotzabasis January 31, 2013 at 05:51 #

    Tasos
    The “tears” should be for the tragedy of leftist intellectuals a la Varoufakis, “tears” of sadness.

    • Guest (xenos) February 1, 2013 at 01:30 #

      Did you ever take an IQ test?

    • Crossover February 1, 2013 at 10:42 #

      What he needs is a drug test not an IQ test.

    • Tasos February 1, 2013 at 16:24 #

      Do not confuse ideology with reality. I am not glad that you are wrong in your quotes about the Greek economy. I wholeheartidly wish that you were right but I live here and sady I know better and this knowledge along with the absurdity of the characterizations in your quote made me smile.

  6. lastgreek January 30, 2013 at 19:46 #

    If it all sounds quite Byzantine it is because it is… Byzantine!

    As opposed to … Western?

  7. Klaus Kastner (@kleingut) January 30, 2013 at 13:10 #

    For someone, like myself, who has no knowledge of what happened with Greek statistics back in 2009, it can be quite helpful to contrast the article which is linked below (by Malkoutzis/Mouzakis) with what is being said in the above article and, particularly, in the comments. As a non-informed, I found the below article very factual with specific points which could easily be contradicted if that were necessary. One interesting side comment in the below article is the following:

    “Some Greek commentators and politicians have seized upon these allegations as evidence of a wider plot against Greece or proof that the country was a victim of sinister forces from within and abroad. The strength of their argument does not stack up against the facts and feeds a misleading narrative in the public debate. This prevents a proper appreciation of the grave economic and fiscal errors made in the buildup to the crisis.”

    http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_26/01/2013_480606

    • Richard January 30, 2013 at 16:10 #

      Hello Klaus – “allegations as evidence of a wider plot against Greece or proof that the country was a victim of sinister forces from within and abroad.” –

      make it “further evidence” or “yet more evidence” – “that the country was & is a victim of sinister forces from within and abroad.”

      “The strength of their argument does not stack up against the facts” – agreed, this is a tiny part of a wider “plot”

      “and feeds a misleading narrative in the public debate” – without a doubt and that must be the intention, much like the “Lagarde list” Just another distraction from the obvious problem.

      “This prevents a proper appreciation of the grave economic and fiscal errors made in the buildup to the crisis” – Again, without a doubt. But I would argue that the economic and fiscal errors *since the crisis are equal or not worse than the actions pre crisis.

  8. genau11 January 30, 2013 at 00:26 #

    I left the first comment,
    on how the differences between the calculations are explained. the ekathimeri link.

    Not one of all the commenters here to this point did attempt to look at the accusers Zoe Georganta arguments, which are completely unspecific,

    nor on the links provided here.

    The problem is, that not a single contributor here, specifically including the owner of this blog, is intellectually or with character capable to be even a supervisor of a local discounter store.

    To ask, where is the difference, numerically, and not to immediately engage in personal, unbased “he say, she says”

    You are the problem of Greece

    • Tasos January 30, 2013 at 10:30 #

      The link you provided is inadequate and does not explain anything. Here are some facts based on it:
      1) It is impossible to believe that Eurostat would not have spotted the difference of methodologies used by Grstat concerning the public service companies and general government earlier. Like the article states there are manuals on the whole process. It could have spotted the difference at a glance in any fiscal year. The issue must be more complicated than that since the writer himself tries to offer some justification without again elaborating on the whole thing. Also one should take into account that these companies are funded mostly through state guaranteed loans. These loans could be the gray area. A state backed security does not have to immediately become a liability and has to be written in the public deficit area. Especially in cases of public enterprises where there are significant assets that could be used as collateral.
      2) There is no explanation in the article concerning hikes in expenses as well as the decline in revenue. The latter can easily be attributed to state inefficiency but the former must be and should be specifically explained. Greece did not host the Olympic Games for a second time that year. 11 billion euros is a hike in expenses that needs to be explained. No explanation has been given so far. One could speculate that the increased interest payments of 2009 could have played a part but these payments are perfectly predictable and very much public. So what really happened with 2009 expenses is the real question.

      I am not big on conspiracy theories. I think that with even basic macroeconomic knowledge one could see that Greece was in trouble as far back as 2006-2007. The debt dynamic was getting out of hand. But what happened in 2009 must be the subject of investigation no matter what. Either people screwed up spectacularly, mismanaging the whole situation or there was foul play in place. Either way, the truth must come out and so far the explanations, all explanations have been inadequate.

    • Guest (xenos) January 30, 2013 at 15:06 #

      I do not disagree with your first post, which was why I did not reply to it. However, I do not know who Mouzakis is, so I am not confident in his detailed knowledge of statistical data collection and production of national data.

      I do think that you should refrain from gratuitously insulting everyone here, on the basis of the alleged accuracy of some newspaper articles. I have read much in Kathimerini that is a load of twaddle (nor do I forget that this is the newspaper that in 2004 engaged in extensive plagiarism of my own work on its front page and two inside pages and refused to apologise or make amends.) Reality is always more complex than journalists claim, and you should respect that fact.

  9. Tasos January 29, 2013 at 21:10 #

    You are absolutely right about the current government’s motives in the latest chapter of the “Greek Statistics” saga. I think though that the question about what happened back in 2009 regarding the government deficit should be the subject of a serious examination. It is most certain that the numbers where tampered with. I do not agree with your estimation that it was probably prudence that drove the deficit numbers up. There are many ways to calculate expenses and payments within a fiscal year. It is a fact that prior to the 2009 elections the ND government had issued bonds in order to pay right then and there all outstanding hospital debts up to that point. Those bonds later received the haircut treatment. A one time payment of that magnitude was certain to have a heavy impact on the deficit of that particular year. There is also the question of the extremely shady deal of the 5 billion euro “titlos” Goldman Sachs – Greek government debt swap that was purchased on 2009 by NBG, did again that up until then off-books SPV played a part in pushing the deficit numbers up? Remember that the ECB refused to disclose documents regarding the use of derivatives by the Greek government citing risk towards the markets! It is quite possible that Greece was forced to suddenly transfer an off-book asset in the accounts of 2009 thus pushing the deficit again even higher. Whatever happened there is one thing clear. The Greek public has never been given a proper explanation as to how the hell it was even possible for a government debt to suddenly skyrocket towards 15% of GDP in on year alone without the government having to bailout its banking system like Ireland did. The numbers are simply staggering, it is inexplicable to my how the deficit could go from 3,7% in early 2009 to 15,4% in December 2009. All parties involved in this had their motives. These should be examined but the priority here is that it can finally be established that one way or the other a crime had been committed concerning the deficit of 2009 and the people responsible need to be found and brought to justice.

    • Guest (xenos) January 29, 2013 at 23:00 #

      You omit to mention that by 2009 Eurostat had started to worry about all Greek statistics. Any Director of the NSSG (renamed ELSTAT, as if this made the statistics better!) would worry about the future of his job if the EU — the new masters of Greece — did not approve of the methodology used and the quality of Greek data.

      Furthermore, it is a blatant lie (from Papandreou, of course) that the NSSG was independent of Greek politics. In my detailed interviews over 2007/8 with officials concerning the collection of data (which I conducted on behalf of an intergovernmental agency for the European Commission) I was told repeatedly that specific reforms in data collection would not be undertaken “for political reasons”. On being pressed, officials elaborated that they did not think that the government in power (at that time, ND) would approve of correcting certain specific errors in data collection. I was actually shocked to hear it, since it was an open admission that the Greek statistical service was not an independent scientific organisation but accountable to politicians.

    • Tasos February 2, 2013 at 11:08 #

      That is a very interesting post Guest(xenos). The part about the Greek statistical agency not being an independent entity but subject to political guidence (not even pressure) is of course absolutely true and pretty much common knowledge. The former head of the agency I think admited as much in one interview joking that when discussing some numbers with a fin-min he said that they could always count on “tax-evasion” in order to “explain” their missed targets. We all know how that turned out.

      The problem with what you are writting is that this is something of a common practice judging by the reaction of the EC. It is common knowledge that governments manipulate everything they can get their hands on to sereve their interests. Super-national entities like the EC are no different. It’s all politics at every level and on all subjects.

    • Guest (xenos) February 3, 2013 at 01:41 #

      Thanks, Taso. I agree with your view that there is some degree of political interference in all statistical agencies, and also at supranational and international level. There are two differences, to my mind, in the Greek case. The first is quite simply that the manipulations of (for example) unemployment statistics across Europe are done by redefining the criteria, and justifying those with various excuses. Sometimes they are plausible, sometimes they are not. But it is more rarely covert in northern Europe, because of the fear of political repercussions should they be found out. This fear is not there in Greece, because the population has very low expectations of its political class: therefore, more tends to be covert with this sort of risk analysis.

      The second difference is that I am fairly sure that no political pressures had ever been made on the points at issue. The bureaucrats in ELSTAT just didn’t want to go near making any reforms, just in case there might be problems. On the other hand, when Eurostat and UNECE gave strong recommendations for specific changes, they happily embraced them despite the heavy workload implied. Again, the risk analysis helps to explain. If the statisticians made their own suggestions for reforms — purely on the grounds of scientific accuracy — they ran the danger of being humiliated. If the reforms were exogenous in origin, then they could simply claim to be doing their job, and taking expert advice from Eurostat or UNECE.

      Put these two together, and you can see a VERY serious structural problem. The statistical service is afraid to make reforms appropriate for Greece, so all the Greece-specific problems will never be solved; and the politicians want to manipulate everything to their advantage, and do it secretly. I do not think this situation pertains in most other EU countries; it may apply to Romania and Bulgaria, though.

    • Tasos February 3, 2013 at 12:41 #

      This is a very accurate assessment of the reasons that structural change is so difficult in Greece. The root of this problem is that Greece has a party-controlled state mechanism. People are hired and dismissed from positions like the ones at ELSTAT, state controlled companies and the like based on qualities like party loyalty and the ability for group thinking so stagnation instead of evolution is the result. We need a complete state reform with the goal to build party independent institutions that would drive change in crucial aspects of economy and society like the judicial system, education, statistics, market regulation, health, national defense and so on. For years ruling party politicians serving as ministers along with party-loyal consultants had carte blanche and we had regression instead of progress. We need a political system that promotes inclusion, inter-party cooperation, transparency and accountability.

  10. En Proodo January 29, 2013 at 16:00 #

    If the 2009 budget deficit was inflated, by mistake or by purpose, and this led the country to IMF, it is the duty of judges to move against Mr Georgiou. Or do you think that when a public officer by his acts or his omission to act, leads a country to crisis should be left alone and not face justice? High positions come along with high responsibility and those who fail should pay the price of their failure.
    So, there are three key questions to be answered:
    1. Was the 2009 budget deficit really inflated?
    2. If the answer to the first question is yes, did this happen on purpose? Did this happen by plan in order to justify a further tightening of the austerity measures and arm Mr Papakonstadinou with arguments in favor of not negotiating a better deal with the troika or it was a result of Mr Georgiou’s worries about under-estimation?
    3. And if it was planned, who planned it? Mr Georgiou himself? Mr Papakonstantinou? Mr Papandreou? And why?
    I think that the judges have reasons to believe that their investigations show that the 2009 deficit was inflated. So, Mr Georgiou should face a trial.
    My personal view is that Papandreou’s government knew that it had to take some tight austerity measures and believed that it would be easier to do that under the umbrella of IMF. So they inflated the 2009 budget deficit, made some statements about the greek economy using in the same phrase the word Titanic and so on, in order to justify some sort of collaboration with the IMF. But the plot went too far. They let the beast out of its cage and found that it was too late to go back, the situation escalated to a uncontrolled level.

  11. Dean Plassaras January 29, 2013 at 14:48 #

    Yani:

    But Georgiou comes across like a strange bird indeed.

    First, his education is Athens College(aka Samaras, Papandreou), then Amherst in US (Samaras, Papandreou) and then PHD at the University of Michigan, on subjects having nothing to do with statistics. In other words he could easily be part of the same milieu and elite that everyone considers as the corrupt center of Greek politics.

    Second, he goes on to learn everything he knows on statistics with an 11-year stint at the IMF. In other words, all his training and point of view are based on how to discipline countries and finding cause to deliver harsh terms.

    Third and actually quite amusing, his hobby is wrestling having written a book on the art of Pangrateion – ancient Greek form of wrestling. He is a martial arts fan and he has been quoted of saying that “Greek statistics are a most brutal form of wrestling”. Wrestling with whom?

    To me all this indicates a sort of pathology on the individual, plus the fact that he is not exactly liked by the people he is tasked to lead. In other words a truly weird bird.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/25/greece-statistics-idUSL6N0AU9EX20130125

  12. Jerry January 29, 2013 at 13:09 #

    Of course you are spot on, but please don’t forget his predecessors are trying their best to show they did not lie through their widely spaced teeth in low-balling the deficit which opened up the whole carcass of mendacious official reporting.

  13. Chris Coles January 29, 2013 at 13:09 #

    Am I being naive to suggest that the foundation of justice is to be seen to be done and as such all one needs is for the Court to be an open hearing where anyone may attend and watch the ongoing proceedings? So who is attending the Court hearings?

  14. Richard January 29, 2013 at 11:42 #

    Yanis – All of the points you make. They could all be true but let me add something.

    Could they be “some” of the intended consequences of something more sinister?

    Let me start by setting the scene. Gleichschaltung. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleichschaltung

    Following on this theme of bringing the political space into line. Has anything happened that would support such a thing happening in Greece?

    The filing of criminal charges of a government statistician.

    ELSTAT has previously been acknowledged by Papandreou as being completely independent from government. http://youtu.be/nQprrdoL68w . ELSTAT spokespersons have been quoted publicly in the past saying how the governments finances are in a catastrophic state or words to that effect. I do not have a source to refer to but if anyone else has please feel free to chip in.

    So what other evidence do we have of departments of the government being threatened and intimidated?

    Arguably the judiciary is the most important to get into line first as they are the troops on the ground if you like with regards to implementing government “measures”.

    So what evidence do we have of the Greek judiciary being intimidated?

    Explosion at Thessaloniki courthouse http://www.csmonitor.com/From-the-news-wires/2010/0514/Greece-explosion-Bomb-causes-courthouse-damage-one-day-after-prison-bombing

    Explosion at Athens courthouse http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/bombing-in-athens-explosion-outside-courthouse-rattles-greece-a-737115.html

    Deputy Justice Minister’s officers ransacked and two of his aides attacked with hammers
    http://takimag.com/article/anarchistan_in_athens/print#axzz2JLuuqH00

    Slightly tenuous? bomb outside Athens prison http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/13/us-greece-explosion-idUSTRE64C4Y420100513

    The government itself obviously has to be in line so what evidence do we have of Greek politicians being intimidated?

    Bomb detonates outside the Greek parliament http://takimag.com/article/anarchistan_in_athens/print#axzz2JLuuqH00

    Revelations of conspiracy to assassinate Greek prime minister prior to Samaras taking office http://www.grreporter.info/en/investigation_attempted_assassination_against_kostas_karamanlis/6294

    Letter explodes in office of Citizen’s protection ministry killing an aide. The citizens protection ministry oversees the police. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/24/greek-ministers-aide-killed-bomb

    Gunmen armed with AK47s open fire on the head offices of Greece’s ruling party “with one bullet being found in the office of the prime minister” – http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/01/14/assailants-fired-shots-with-ak47-at-nea-dimocratia-hq-bullet-in-samaras-office/

    Historical perspective. 1989, Leader of Greek parliament assassinated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlos_Bakoyannis

    Outspoken journalists are always in the firing line of oppressive governments. The evidence of intimidation of the media?

    Journalist assassinated http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2010/07/greek_journalist_assassinated

    IEDs detonate outside the homes of 5 journalists http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/11/us-greece-attack-idUSBRE90A0D420130111

    Greek journalist arrested http://rt.com/news/greece-government-censorship-media-732/

    Greek journalist arrested http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2012/oct/29/press-freedom-greece

    And we now have a bomb placed in a shopping mall http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2013/01/20/bomb-explodes-at-athens-mall-2-security-guards-slightly-injured/ resulting in the Greek minister public protection saying the judiciary in effect are not doing their job.
    http://www.protothema.gr/news-in-english/article/?aid=251785

    In short, the charging of a government statistician with criminal offences is just another example of an incident that will inevitably have a cooling effect on anyone wishing to speak out against the Greek regime or anyone in the government apparatus that wants to express independent thought.

    These are the facts and they are obviously open to interpretation. Coordinated events or simply a series of coincidences………………

  15. Glass7 January 29, 2013 at 11:31 #

    Quote:
    It is undoubtedly the case that the case against Mr Georgiou is being pursued by a group of judges uncomfortably close to today’s conservative-led government.

    Undoubtedly even?
    Evidence, please..

  16. waves January 29, 2013 at 10:35 #

    I remember back then that the issue of the dissagreement was the debt of the state-owned companies that was calculated as public debt.
    I would like to listen to your opinion on that issue.

    I think you are right about the present government. Papandreou also declares that every time he speaks.

    You once wrote about the death of Social-Democracy and I think you were right again.

    I think the Cener-Right is also dead. They have nothing to say. All the principles of the right, such as liberalism, patriotism etc. are being “confiscated”

  17. raikog January 29, 2013 at 06:20 #

    Long live the Emperor! The filth and dirt has to stay under the (expensive) carpet…

  18. Jmarco January 29, 2013 at 06:04 #

    Is it a crime to overestimate your country’s budget deficit with mandated austerity measures implemented to reduce government spending? Really, what difference did it make? The ECB would still ask for more austerity and tax collecting no matter how close to the budget numbers that Greek government came.

    For someone like me who spent over 30 yrs in accounting preparing monthly, quarterly and annual budgets. You soon realize that your budgeted numbers are really just best guesses at the moment you did the budget. Most US business executives quickly forget the last budget numbers and focus on the newest ones. Major US corporate reporting is famous for under estimating its sales/profits to appear like its always beating expectations. Most stock analysts take a US companies budget number and then calculate from that what they think real number will be.

    This judicial investigation may be authenic and then again it may be just political theater (a clever magic act to get the Greek people’s attention averted from the present conservative government policies)

  19. conighion January 29, 2013 at 05:26 #

    Prof. Varoufakis your explanation about the over-estimation of Greek deficit is plausible. I do not understand though why you suggest that there was an over-estimation by ELSTAT. I remember that ELSTAT estimated it at 13.6% and afterwards, around November of 2010, Eurostat revised Greece’s 2009 fiscal deficit up to 15.4% and later above of 16% [1].

    As I understand ELSTAT and Eurostat made different estimations and that ELSTAT underestimated it. Or is it the case that ELSTAT feeds the numbers to Eurostat and thus ELSTAT is responsible for Eurostats’s prediction.

    Moreover the numbers are given to ELSTAT by the government and I recall Mr. Papakonstantinou stating that what he did was to encourage the directors of the different agencies of the general government to be as accurate as possible about the liabilities of the public sector and that is why the deficit was raised to 13.6%.

    In any case I do not understand why Mr Georgiou should be held accountable. What could he have done wrong?

    Thank you…

    [1] http://articles.marketwatch.com/2010-11-15/news/30902387_1_gdp-greece-deficit

  20. Leo Kolivakis January 29, 2013 at 05:22 #

    “So, the question becomes: Why does the new three-party government want to persecute Mr Georgiou again?” Because the public is outraged and they want heads to roll. Georgiou is the sacrificial lamb being slaughtered to avoid going after the bigger (more corrupt) fish who orchestrated years of mismanagement, fraud and outright theft. All parties are to blame. One thing I can tell you is that Greece’s Finance minister, Stournaras, did a great job navigating this mess, implementing much needed reforms and standing his ground with troika when he had to. No matter what anyone says, Stournaras deserves a medal for his hard work and courage. I don’t care much for the rest of the political clowns from the right-wing, center and left-wing parties. In fact, I loathe Tsipras and the utopian nonsense his party espouses. It’s the worst form of demagoguery. It’s high time Greeks take their responsibility for the crisis and change the culture of entitlement which has destroyed this beautiful country.

    Leo Kolivakis

    Publisher of Pension Pulse blog.

    • lastgreek January 30, 2013 at 18:31 #

      I don’t care much for the rest of the political clowns from the right-wing, center and left-wing parties.

      Of course, when the elected representatives have been bought and sold, many times over, there is no way they are going to take up their citizens’ interests. This does not apply only to Greece but to every country — except maybe Iceland — in which citizens elect representatives on their behalf.

      And what gets to me is that the politicians can be bought so cheaply. That is why I found it amusing, if not refreshing, when Governor Rick Perry of Texas actually declared on live televesion last year that he can’t be bought … cheaply! I prefer the Athenian system of direct democracy. Nothing pisses off the establishment more than citizens having a direct say.

      Anyway, it remains to be seen with Tsipras. I’d like to know who is financially backing him behind the scenes.

    • Leo Kolivakis February 3, 2013 at 17:50 #

      LastGreek,

      My sources tell me one of the richest Greeks is backing Tsipras to ensure control of his family’s monopoly power. At first, thought this was insane, but now think it makes perfect sense.

  21. kotzabasis January 29, 2013 at 04:40 #

    Professor Varoufakis, why this ceaseless lachrymose vendetta against the Samaras’ government when it is palpably evident that the latter is not a ditto of Papandreou’s government that was “stuck in a rut” while the former by moving with celerity and bringing radical reforms that would rekindle the economy and thus pull Greece out of the crisis by a creative combination of austerity and economically boosting measures? Why are you metamorphosing yourself from a human into an ostrich that refuses to see the facts?

    While the horse of the Greek economic resurgence kalpazi under its mentally supple rider Antonis Samaras toward victory (read the ending of the economic crisis), you ride your donkey and bringing the message of further depression for Greece. By the time your slow messenger will arrive, your doomsday message will already be overcome by events.

    • Davydd Cook January 29, 2013 at 07:38 #

      “Mentally supple”? “Celerity”? “Economically boosting measures”? You’re a comedian, right? Please tell me you’re a stand-up comedian.

      Exactly what part of Samaras’ consistent and continued insistence that the terms of the Memorandum must be fully implemented at all costs, as prior actions to anything else, constitutes a “creative combination” of anything? It seems that the bulk of his government’s achievements lie in carrying out PASOK’s loan agreements, and prosecuting anyone who criticizes.

    • Guest (xenos) January 29, 2013 at 11:08 #

      Yani: you really need to establish a minimum IQ for the comments here. You might put it at 70, which I think used to be the definition of “moron”.

    • Crossover January 29, 2013 at 19:43 #

      I thought drugs were restricted in Australia.

    • lastgreek January 30, 2013 at 18:00 #

      Davydd Cook,

      “Celerity”? Ha,ha. I thought he had written “celery.”

    • Tasos January 30, 2013 at 23:02 #

      Judging by your nickname I would like to presume that your post is subtly ironic while incredibly amusing as well. The horse analogy and the “kalpazi” quote brought tears in my eyes, tears of laughter. Thank you for that!

  22. genau11 January 29, 2013 at 04:35 #

    The first reasonable explanation of the deficit numbers discrepancy:

    http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_26/01/2013_480606

    In contrast, the web page of Zoe Georganta is just a bunch of completelely unspecific conspiracy babbel

    And to not spare ND:

    http://www.philip-atticus.com/2013/01/financially-decoding-athens-metro.html

    • Richard January 29, 2013 at 10:06 #

      genau11 – Conspiracy? I do not know. What I can say is that *if* the deficit figures were inflated than that would be 100% inline with the other self destructive measures that the Greek government had/has implemented.

  23. genau11 January 29, 2013 at 04:34 #

    The first reasonable explanation of the deficit numbers discrepancy:

    http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_26/01/2013_480606

    In contrast, the web page of Zoe Georganta is just a bunch of completelely unspecific conspiracy babbel

    And to not spare ND:

    http://www.philip-atticus.com/2013/01/financially-decoding-athens-metro.html

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Greek Conspiracy Theory – A Coordinated Attempt To Manipulate Government? « independence4wales.com - January 29, 2013

    [...] Is there a coordinated attempt to manipulate Greek government policy and those who report and implement the policy? Or are we simply looking at a series of coincidences. You decide. From a post on Yanis Varoufakis’s blog [...]

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